We’ve had a stretch of heat over the Pacific Northwest the likes of which I can scarcely remember from growing up in the area and which I’ve certainly not seen in the 4 years I’ve lived in southern Oregon. Temperatures reached 110F at times at my house over the last couple of weeks, and many records have been broken. In fact, one site in Washington State may have broken the all-time state record.
But it looks like we may finally get a break in the heat wave over the next week or so. A monster ridge of high pressure has been the culprit in the heat wave, but some long range models show the ridge retrograding offshore and allowing a trough to drop in over the PacNW. Here is the GFS 500 mb ensemble mean and spread for 10 days from now:
The spread is actually pretty low for that far out, and thus troughing seems like a good bet over the west coast. This probably wouldn’t mean cool weather, but at least the oppressive heat we’ve seen should be gone.
The fly in the ointment, however, is the European Forecast. I don’t have access to its ensembles right now, but its deterministic forecast shows a brief troughy interlude followed by the ridge rebounding over the area.
Of course, we’ll have to wait and see, but at least there is some hope for those of us who don’t like living in ovens.